Chicago
Private-school share · Ages 3–18
Private enrollment rose from about 80,000 to 83,000 while the city’s child population fell 15%.3
Save Seattle Schools.Enrollment & educational losses
Oct. 25, 2026
The cost of another disruption
Austerity can
deepen the decline.
Seattle Public Schools (SPS) needs stability. Closures can drive more families away.
U.S. Army / Russell Roederer, 1984
449waitlisted;
did not enroll in SPS
did not enroll in SPS
In 2024, 20.3% of SPS’s end-August waitlist did not enroll, versus 13.6% in 2023: about 150 above the prior-rate benchmark.1
1.2percentage points
less college attendance
less college attendance
A study of 146 Texas closures estimates lower in-state four-year college attendance by age 26, plus a 0.7-point drop in bachelor’s completion.13
01Disruption can deepen
Disruption can deepen
enrollment loss.
Published reports show private schools gaining share, charters expanding across a closure wave, and a widening gap between birth cohorts and SPS kindergarten enrollment.
Washington, D.C.
Charter share of public enrollment
Across the 2008 closure wave, charters grew 21,947 → 25,729 (+17.2%); DCPS enrollment fell 8.6%.9
Seattle
Birth-cohort gap · SPS kindergarten
Kindergarten enrollment fell 20.3% while the corresponding birth cohorts fell 5.0%.15 SPS also reports 671 more private-school pupils in 2019–23.17
18%to charters
Closures can move enrollment into charters.
In Stanford CREDO’s 26-state study, 18% of tracked transfers from closed, low-performing district schools went to charters the following year; 82% went to other district schools.16
Chicago: 2014–23, Census-based estimates. D.C.: audited enrollment, 2007–09. Seattle gap: 100% minus SPS kindergartners / earlier birth cohort; includes net migration. CREDO: 2006–13 closures; observed public-school destinations.
Diversity makes a district more resilient.
Neighborhood schools, immersion, K–8 programs, arts and varied school sizes give families ways to belong. During rapid change, families want different balances of technology, exploratory learning and practical experience—qualities test scores alone cannot capture. Variety keeps families across incomes and needs invested in SPS. John Stanford paired school-level authority with accountability and community involvement.12 Preserve these strengths and hold every school to high standards.
Sources: 1 SPS, School choice stats, March 2025, PDF pp. 88–89: 449/2,208 vs. 209/1,542. Benchmark: about 150 (449 − 2,208 × 209/1,542). 2 UChicago Consortium, 2018. 13 Kim, May 2024 working paper, Table 2, 1998–2003 closures; urban and rural schools. 3 CPS, SY26 Enrollment Trends, slide 14; Kids First Chicago, 2026. 9 OSSE audited history. 15 SPS, 2023–24, Table 1-A; FLO, 2024, Table 11. 16 CREDO, 2017, Vol. II, Table 9. 17 SPS, 2025 enrollment study, pp. 27–28. 12 Stanford, PBS interview, October 1998.
Save Seattle Schools.The case for a stronger SPS
Oct. 25, 2026
The Seattle School Papers · In brief
Make the case. Earn the trust.
- Keep a shared stake. Retain families across incomes. Some school-board members’ children attend private schools. The board must earn the confidence of families who depend on the district it governs.
- Market schools before closing them. Where are the SPS-organized tours, mailers and Google Ads to match independent schools and nearby districts? Fund a real recruitment campaign and publish its results.
- Let bigger schools earn enrollment. If big-box schools are better, prove it with funded teaching, specialists and disability support. Let families choose; don’t force them by fiat. Preserve distinctive programs.
- Give recovery a fair chance. Stabilize leadership, strengthen teaching and fund recruitment, preschool partnerships and multilingual outreach. Show what SPS tried before calling closure the last resort.
- Fund children’s actual needs. Average spending is not the cost of one more student. Fund the support each child needs, protect greater needs and count the revenue and costs of retaining families.
- Earn retention. A reassignment letter is not a retention strategy. Ask families what would make them stay, fund those commitments and report actual departures. Make keeping families a measure of success.
- Support leaders; scrutinize plans. We’re rooting for SPS. Require an open process, accountable leadership and a credible ten-year plan families can help shape. Set public milestones and report progress.¹¹
- Keep a path back to growth. School communities take years to build and a vote to dismantle. Preserve the neighborhood access, trusted staff and distinctive programs that can bring families back to SPS.
Chicago’s learning-loss timeline · 2013 closures
2 months behind in math
Reading: 1.5 months below expectations, before the move.
Reading recovered
Receiving schools also saw a temporary reading loss.
Math gap remained
Lower math scores persisted for four years.²
Neighborhood losses can outlast closure.
Chicago · Majority-Black tracts · 2013–18 estimates
26 of 49
Closed buildings still vacant in 2023.⁵
Population loss: −9.2% near closed schools; −3.2% near schools that stayed open.⁴
9.9% more nearby shootings linked to school closure in a 2026 study.⁶
Closures and alternatives: the sequence matters.
Mass closures followed by Board approval of 7 new charter schools/campuses.⁸
Federal vouchers began in 2004, before the 2008 closures. The 2011 SOAR Act continued the program.⁹
Surplus Carleton school: charter sale approved, then abandoned over renovation costs.¹⁰
4 Sun-Times/WBEZ, 2023, original Census analysis.
5 UChicago research account, June 2026.
6 Statchen et al., Social Science & Medicine, 2026.
7 Brazil, 2020: temporary crime declines near vacant sites.
8 Chicago Board actions, Jan. 22, 2014.
9 GAO-08-9; IES, SOAR; OSSE audited counts, 2024.
10 Milwaukee: 2016 approval; withdrawal.
How will Seattle hold SPS accountable?
In 1, 5 and 10 years, how should Seattle residents judge these closures—and who will be accountable? What existing data supports the outcomes SPS expects? What do natural experiments in SPS and other districts already tell us to expect?
- Enrollment & kindergarten captureWould they rise or fall?
- Public support for SPSWould it grow or shrink?
- Parent satisfaction & district trustWould they improve or decline?
A school’s future deserves your voice.
Would you support or oppose closing your school?